Is the AI Data Center Debt Party Over?

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  • Applied Digital (APLD) plunged 17.5% with no company-specific news after gaining 200% year-to-date. Applied Digital designs and operates AI data centers.

  • Applied Digital issued $2.35B in 9.25% senior secured notes to fund expansion and refinance debt. The company relies heavily on CoreWeave as its main tenant.

  • Hyperscalers issued $121B in bonds in Q3 2025 for AI infrastructure. This is over four times the prior five-year annual average.

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Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) has been one of the standout performers in 2025, delivering gains of approximately 200% year-to-date. The company designs, builds, and operates next-generation data centers optimized for high-performance computing and AI workloads. Its strong performance positioned it as a key holding in Nvidia‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) “secret” investment portfolio focused on AI ecosystem companies.

While most holdings in that portfolio declined sharply — resulting in an overall 30% drop in value since the end of Q3 2025 — Applied Digital was the outlier, with Nvidia’s stake rising 208% in total value to over $239 million in early December. This resilience helped shield the portfolio from even steeper losses during a broader AI infrastructure pullback.

However, that changed yesterday when Applied Digital shares plunged 17.5%, closing below $23 per share, with no apparent company-specific news triggering the decline.

Applied Digital’s rapid expansion into AI-focused data centers has required substantial financing. In its fiscal first quarter, the company reported $687 million in current and long-term debt alongside $74 million in cash and equivalents, but in November 2025, a subsidiary priced a $2.35 billion offering of 9.25% senior secured notes due 2030 to fund new facilities and refinance existing obligations. The debt is seen as riskier because Applied Digital relies heavily upon CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) as its main tenant.

Investors are growing uncomfortable with this rising level of leverage, particularly for a company still reporting net losses despite revenue growth. Analysts note that Applied Digital’s model relies on flawless execution of long-term leases — such as multi-billion-dollar contracts for its Polaris Forge campuses — to service debt and achieve profitability. Delays in power delivery, tenant ramp-ups, or shifts in hyperscaler demand could strain cash flows.

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