Key Takeaways
- Delta Air Lines is set to report second-quarter earnings on Thursday, the first of the major U.S. airlines to do so this quarter.
- Analysts expect a relatively stable second quarter for the industry, while projections for the second half of 2025 are less certain.
- Airline executives said in last quarter’s earnings calls that demand within the U.S. was likely to be a weak spot this year.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is scheduled to release its second-quarter results Thursday, setting the tone for other carriers like United Airlines (UAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and American Airlines (AAL), each set to report later this month.
Analysts from Bank of America, UBS, and Morgan Stanley said in recent notes that they expect Q2 results will be unsurprising after a difficult first half of the year for airline stocks, with third-quarter outlooks more likely to move shares.
“The message from airlines in 2Q25 has been one of stability, a theme we see in many of the demand indicators we follow,” Bank of America analysts wrote. “As such, we expect 2Q25 results to be largely in line with outlooks.”
‘Cracks Remain’ in Macro Environment Even If Q2 Is Solid, Morgan Stanley Says
Morgan Stanley analysts wrote Monday that the second quarter “arguably shaped up better than feared” following warnings from several airlines about declining demand. However, they added that “there is no question that cracks remain in the macro even if the industry is not falling apart” and “below the relatively calm surface, danger may lurk.”
UBS analysts said they “we see potential for sluggish updates from airlines from their 2Q prints and forward outlooks,” and cut their full-year profit estimates for Delta and United to “reflect a more cautious view on the pace of improvement in demand and RASM performance.”
Delta is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $2.05 on revenue of $16.38 billion, each lower than a year ago, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Analysts tracked by the investment research firm are bullish on Delta’s stock, with 10 “buy” ratings and just one “hold,” and an average price target of $58.18, 16% higher than Monday’s closing price.
Delta shares entered Tuesday down 17% since the start of the year. Shares of American and United are 34% and 16% lower, respectively, while those of Southwest are up less than 1% in 2025.