Key Takeaways
- A big vote on Elon Musk’s pay is set for today. Schwab Asset Management and the Florida State Board are among those backing the Tesla board’s proposal, while Norway’s sovereign wealth fund and the New York State Common Retirement Fund are against it.
- Prediction markets bettors across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood are showing near-certain probabilities that shareholders approve Musk’s pay package.
The fate of Tesla—or, at least, the answer to the question of whether its chief Elon Musk stays or walks—could rest on today’s shareholder vote.
A preliminary tally on this year’s 14 proposals, which include giving Musk greater control over Tesla (TSLA) as well as a trillion-dollar pay package, is expected after a meeting set to start at 3 p.m. central time. A final count will likely come in a few days, filed to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Though shareholders have voted with Tesla to approve a past compensation deal for Musk on more than one occasion, the days leading up to today’s shareholder vote have been fraught with tension. The EV-company-with-robotics-and-AI-ambitions has made clear its position that it would be lost without Musk at the helm and that the incentives it recommends are necessary to retain him.
“We believe that Elon’s singular vision is vital to navigating this critical inflection point,” Robyn Denholm and Kethleen Wilson-Thompson, members of the special committee of Tesla’s board of directors wrote in a letter to shareholders.
Counterpoint Global, an investment team within Morgan Stanley Investment Management, as well as the Florida State Board and Schwab Asset Management, have said they intend to cast their votes in favor of Musk’s compensation package.
WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU
Whether Tesla shareholders vote for, or against, Musk’s compensation plan, the vote has revived a debate over key-person risk as well as corporate governance practices. High-profile investor groups holding big chunks of company stock have taken both sides of the issue this time around, though prediction markets bettors overwhelmingly expect Musk to get his way.
On the other side, major proxy advisory firms Glass Lewis and ISS advised shareholders to vote against the compensation package, citing dilution and a lack of key-person risk mitigation. Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund disclosed earlier this week that it voted against the pay package for those reasons and others. The New York State Common Retirement Fund earlier this month said it intends to vote against it, and exhorted others to do the same.
The trillion-dollar vote has drawn in bettors across prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood—all of which overwhelmingly indicate the expectation—at 90% or higher—that Musk’s pay deal will pass.
Shares of Tesla fell about 3.5% on Thursday, closing around $446 to leave them up about 10% for the year.
This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect share-price movement.