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The November jobs report, delayed from its initial December 5 release date due to the record-long government shutdown, came in higher than expected but showed the labor market continuing to exhibit signs of weakness.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, beating economists’ estimate for 45,000 new jobs. The report also showed 105,000 job losses for October, while figures for August were revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and September’s additions were revised lower by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000.
These revisions result in 33,000 fewer jobs combined in August and September than previously reported.
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As for November, job gains were seen in health care (adding 46,000) and construction (adding 28,000). However, federal government jobs declined by 4,000 in November and 162,000 in October, and are now down by 271,000 since January. The October federal job losses came as those who accepted a deferred resignation offer were removed from payrolls.
The data does not count furloughed federal employees because they received pay.
The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a separate survey, rose to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. The data also showed that wage growth was 0.1% higher compared to September and up 3.5% year over year.
“The October and November payroll releases set a modestly dovish tone for U.S. monetary policy in 2026,” says Jeff Schulze, head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments. “The rise in the unemployment rate is something to keep an eye on and will keep the hopes of another cut alive in the first quarter since labor slack appears to be gradually building.”
According to CME Group’s FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 73% chance the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged when it meets in January. Odds are at 45% that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter-percentage point in March.
But as Chair Powell said during the December Fed meeting, “we’re going to have to look at [the data] carefully and with a somewhat skeptical eye,” because it may be “distorted by very technical factors.”
With the November jobs report now in the books, here’s some of what economists, strategists and other experts around Wall Street have to say about the results and what they could mean for the Fed and investors going forward.
Experts’ takes on the November jobs report and what it means for the Fed
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“This softer jobs picture reinforces the view that the labor market is no barrier to further Fed easing. The Fed has already signaled patience after its recent rate cut and emphasized downside risks in employment. Futures markets are pricing in continued rate cuts in 2026, and a softer labor backdrop could bring some of those cuts forward if inflation also cools.” – Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com
“The Fed is unlikely to put much weight on today’s report given data disruptions. Chair Powell commented last week that the report would likely be affected by shutdown-related distortions, making it a less reliable gauge of the labor market’s health than usual. The report on December’s employment data, released in early January ahead of the next meeting, will likely be a much more meaningful indicator for the Fed when it comes to deciding the near-term policy trajectory.” – Kay Haigh, Global Co-Head of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management
“Today’s report may assuage some fears that the labor market is cooling too rapidly. Between September’s jobs data warranting healthy skepticism due to delays and self-reporting, October’s data nearly being lost, and month-over-month downward revisions, we’re continuing to watch for steadiness and consistency before agreeing that there been a truly ‘strong’ jobs report.” – Jerry Tempelman, Former Senior Analyst at the NY Fed and VP of Fixed Income Research at Mutual of America Capital Management
“November NFP at +64k, slightly above +50k consensus, continues the general downtrend in job growth without signaling new recession risks. This print alone shouldn’t meaningfully shift expectations for the path of Fed cuts, nor is it low enough to create new downward pressure on risk assets. While October NFP was much lower, at -105k, government payrolls were the discorporate contributor, as widely expected, and private payrolls stayed positive which makes the October headline less concerning.” – Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi-Asset and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors
“Taken at face value, the unemployment rate has crept up, but this data is particularly messy for November and should be taken with a grain of salt. The BLS had to make several adjustments to their typical processes in order to account for the government shutdown, all of which add up to less precise estimates, particularly in the part of the jobs report that surveys households. There’s little doubt the labor market is cooling, even after accounting for these nuances in the October and November data. The current job market is not very welcoming to job seekers, with new jobs and overall hiring subdued.” – Elizabeth Renter, Senior Economist at NerdWallet
“After months of anticipation for official government employment data, consensus market forecasts proved remarkably accurate. Bond bears likely will point to the continued strength in private payroll growth, while bond bulls will highlight the modest uptick in the unemployment rate, which reached the highest level in over a decade, driven by reentrants. Overall, the report contains enough softness to justify prior rate cuts, but it offers little support for significantly deeper easing ahead. With labor market signals sending mixed messages, the next inflation reading may become the primary driver for markets as we enter the new year.” – Kevin O’Neil, Associate Portfolio Manager & Senior Research Analyst at Brandywine Global