You may have heard about a settlement between President Donald Trump and the IRS to resolve a $10 billion lawsuit over his tax returns. The deal has sparked backlash, including over a provision that bars the federal tax agency from continuing existing audits involving Trump, his company, and his family members.
The agreement also reportedly creates a multibillion-dollar “Anti-Weaponization Fund” (more on that later).
Meanwhile…the administration has cut IRS staffing and budget — most recently by roughly $1.1 billion in FY26 — since Trump began his second term.
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These developments raise several thorny political, legal, and practical concerns. But one key question is whether IRS enforcement priorities will shift in ways that affect more taxpayers: Who else will still get audited, and why?
Trump IRS settlement: How we got here
Before looking at who the IRS might audit, it helps to understand how the Trump IRS settlement came about in the first place.
As Kiplinger has reported, Donald Trump, the Trump Organization, and family members sued the IRS and Treasury Department in federal court in early 2026.
- They alleged that the agencies failed to safeguard Trump’s confidential tax information after an unauthorized disclosure by a former IRS contractor.
- The suit sought $10 billion in damages and drew scrutiny because a sitting president was suing over the very agency that enforces tax law.
By mid-May 2026, Trump said the dispute was resolved through a settlement with the Department of Justice (DOJ). As mentioned, a provision in that settlement appears to limit IRS action surrounding existing audits involving Trump, his family, and affiliated entities.
The settlement also reportedly creates a roughly $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” tied to claims of government misconduct. The fund would be taxpayer-funded and controlled by an administration-appointed group, not the IRS, raising concerns about its broad scope, lack of congressional oversight, and lack of precedent in tax disputes.
A lawsuit has already been filed challenging the fund’s structure, and the combination of a large compensation fund and limits on IRS scrutiny of Trump, his company, and his family is fueling concern.
In a May 21 letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and IRS CEO Frank Bisignano, several Senate lawmakers wrote the following.
“Through this settlement, you and the President have created a nearly $1.8 billion taxpayer-funded slush fund for the President’s political allies, including potentially the January 6th insurrectionists . . . essentially making it official United States government policy that President Trump, his family, and many other allies are above the law.”
IRS audit red flags for everyone else?
Even as Trump appears to have reduced exposure to IRS scrutiny for certain existing matters involving him or his family, audits remain unlikely to disappear for other taxpayers.
And one thing to note first: Historically, IRS audit activity has not been evenly distributed, and data show that a meaningful share of audits involving lower-income taxpayers has centered on refundable credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC).
The reason seems to be that those are easier for the agency to flag and resolve through automated review and correspondence audit.
What about audit rates? The overall audit tax rate for the IRS is reportedly less than 1%.
- IRS audit rates fell sharply from about 0.9% of returns in 2011 to roughly 0.3% in 2018 (about 9 in 1,000 returns versus 3 in 1,000), according to IRS Data Book figures.
- Audit activity then ticked up modestly through 2024, following new IRS funding under the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act.
- Early reporting from President Donald Trump’s second term suggests that audits have softened again due to staffing and budget cuts, which affect enforcement capacity.
With fewer experienced revenue agents available, enforcement leans more heavily on automated systems that can operate at scale — flagging discrepancies between reported income and third-party forms like W-2s and 1099s, or generating notices based on data mismatches.
That tends to push compliance toward high-volume, low-complexity cases where algorithms identify errors. Some so-called “red flags” include:
- Income reporting mismatches detected through IRS computer systems
- Refundable tax credit claims requiring documentation checks
- Self-employment and gig-economy income reporting
- Automated compliance alerts triggered by third-party reporting gaps
More complex audits, like those involving large partnerships, layered business structures, and high-net-worth returns, require more staff time and specialized expertise. As a result, they tend to be more sensitive to staffing levels when the agency loses experienced examiners or shifts resources toward automation.
That doesn’t necessarily mean fewer audits overall, but there could be a shift in which kinds of errors the agency catches most often. That tension lies at the center of the broader question raised by Trump’s settlement: not just who is exempt from audit scrutiny, but who remains most exposed and why.
Who get audited by the IRS: Bottom line
For most taxpayers, IRS audits in 2026 are still likely to occur — but probably at relatively low rates overall — and they don’t usually look like the intensive, in-person examinations some people experienced in the past or tend to imagine.
Note: Keep in mind that whether the IRS audits you will depend on your specific tax situation. As Kiplinger has reported, the agency may consider several factors, including income, tax breaks claimed, whether you own a business, etc. Consult a tax professional if you’re concerned about your audit exposure.
- More often, modern IRS audits are “correspondence audits.”
- These are automated notices often triggered by mismatched income records, missing paperwork, or questions tied to tax credits and deductions.
- They tend to be relatively narrow, system-driven, and generally designed to be resolved through documents rather than agent interviews.
But since enforcement tends to fall most heavily on returns that are easiest to flag automatically, everyday taxpayers can end up more visible than higher-income taxpayers with more complex cases, which many people would assume would or should draw the most scrutiny.
Meanwhile, the Trump IRS settlement is fueling a fiery debate.
Senate Finance Democrats, including the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), as well as Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), have questioned whether the agreement oversteps congressional authority and effectively restricts IRS enforcement in ways never approved by statute.
At the same time, some Republicans, including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, have also raised concerns about precedent and process, arguing that any deal involving limits on IRS audits or large compensation structures requires clearer congressional oversight and guardrails.
Fitzpatrick and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) introduced the No Taxpayer-Funded Settlement Slush Funds Act to prevent federal dollars from being used for the fund.
Notably, Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota reportedly has said he didn’t see a purpose for the fund.
The Justice Department also recently faced questioning in a hearing on Capitol Hill over how the agreement was structured and how a nearly $1.8 billion compensation fund was justified in the context of a tax enforcement dispute. Lawmakers pressed acting Attorney General Todd Blanche for more details on how the terms were negotiated and approved.
Overall? Stay tuned. What becomes of the Trump IRS deal could spark continued debate over tax enforcement and fairness.