Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, July 2: Kind of a Big Jump

If you’re here looking for lower mortgage interest rates, today is definitely not your day.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.40% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 12 basis points higher than yesterday and 15 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

While rates have been bouncing around day-to-day, on the whole they’ve remained relatively steady; the average 30-year mortgage rate in June was 6.34%, basically identical to May’s average of 6.35%.

While the economy never sleeps, it is made up of real people, many of whom will be enjoying fireworks and hot dogs over the next few days. Markets are closed tomorrow, so the mortgage Nerds won’t be publishing a new daily rates analysis until Monday. Happy 4th of July!

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

🤓 Kate on Rates: June 25, 2026

📈 What influences mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest jobs report this morning, showing that job gains came in notably below projections last month (57k, compared to an anticipated 115k).

This reverses course from the previous three jobs reports, which had come in stronger than expected. If the June report had also registered above expectations, there would be a stronger case for the Federal Reserve to consider raising the federal funds rate at its meeting at the end of the month. After all, when employment is especially strong, it gives central bankers license to shift focus to inflation. Last week, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (the Personal Consumption Expenditures index) showed that inflation was running at 4.1%, its hottest level in three years.

Now, the Fed might be more likely to hold rates steady for another meeting, and wait to consider a rate hike until at least September.

While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, its policy decisions influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. Markets like to know where the Federal Reserve is headed, whether that’s toward rate cuts, hikes or staying the course. Even an anticipated rate hike from the Fed is enough to put upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Next week, the Nerds will be watching the June Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors. This report, which drops on July 9, should give us a temperature check on the current homebuying landscape.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.90% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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